ELECTION 2006: REFLECTIONS AND RANDOM THOUGHTS
November 2006
By VINCENT P. CAROCCI
After an eight-month hiatus to complete and polish a second book manuscript, what better time to re-enter the commentary arena than in the immediate aftermath of a consequential political campaign of both state and national import. So here (in no particular order of priority) are some random reflections from the political grandstand on the balloting of 2006:
--Congressional Republicans have no one to blame but themselves for the loss of the U.S. House of Representatives. A political party cannot have incumbents like Duke Cunningham of California, Robert Ney of Ohio and Mark Foley of Florida resign under a cloud of either criminal or personal wrong doing—not to mention the departure of House Majority Leader Tom DeLay earlier this year under a legal cloud—and not expect to suffer at the polls for their conduct. The electorate understands when the lines of propriety have been crossed and how to register their displeasure.
--Closer to home, Republican Congressmen Curt Weldon of Delaware County and Don Sherwood of Lackawanna County paid the ultimate price—their political careers--for their alleged or admitted transgressions. These wounds were self-inflicted and once again, did not go unnoticed by a discerning electorate. The defeat of Congresswoman Melissa Hart in southwestern Pennsylvania is more difficult to explain. Undoubtedly, her alliance with U.S. Senator Rick Santorum (and by association with President Bush) undoubtedly played a role in the outcome.
--For Pennsylvania’s Senator Santorum, his political string simply ran out. One cannot spend, though to his everlasting credit, 16 years in Washington freely and forthrightly expressing his views on a host of controversial subjects—partial birth abortions, social security, Islamic radicalism, euthanasia frequently among them--and not have events and one’s foes eventually catch up to him. True to his core, Santorum never wavered in his views for short-term political gain. But his ideological conservatism held him in ill-stead in Philadelphia and its surrounding suburbs where almost one-third of the Pennsylvania electorate resides; and the flap he generated by billing his school district in southwestern Pennsylvania for the home schooling of his children in Washington may have damaged him even more so in his blue-collar home base.
--U.S. Senator-elect Robert P. Casey is a man of unquestioned integrity and commitment to public service in the public interest. What remains to be determined is what place and voice he will find among his party and its national leadership. This is essentially the same national Democratic leadership which shunned and ostracized his father, the governor, most particularly for his views on the subject of abortion. Neither they nor the political direction of the party has changed measurably in the intervening years. Do young Casey’s views, primarily on the white-heat cultural issues of the day, now reconcile more closely to those advanced by the national party? Or will they need to be modified if he is to avoid the same fate as his father? Only time will tell.
--It was written here eight months ago, that the Pennsylvania gubernatorial election was all but over, no matter the principals, unless the Republican nominee found a way to marginalize the enormous advantage Democrat incumbent Edward G. Rendell enjoyed in his populous southeastern Pennsylvania home base. Nothing in the intervening months altered that conclusion as evidenced by the governor’s landslide victory. As it turns out, the magnitude of the challenge was multiplied many-fold when in election night returns the Governor won 34 of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties (compared to only 18 four years ago).
--Republican candidate Lynn Swann, articulate, handsome, personable, with celebrity in his own right, was not an unwise choice of the party elders to carry the GOP banner into the gubernatorial battle. Pardon the cliché, but from the outset, the party’s cognoscenti understood it was going to take a “Hail Mary” to defeat this Democratic incumbent. But neither Swann nor his campaign found a coherent theme to persuade Pennsylvania voters that a change in the governor’s office was in order. It was a mismatch from the very beginning.
--Politically, incumbent Rendell may be better off with a state House of Representatives under the narrow control—102-101 the morning after the election—of the Republican opposition. Rendell can pick off any number of nervous suburban county Republicans to advance his agenda when he really needs to do that—mass transit funding, for example. Yet, a Republican House can serve as a perfect political foil when issues or events conspire against him. The Republican Senate—29-21—always was going to be problematic for him no matter the outcome in the House balloting. And Governors of recent vintage will tell you in their most private moments that it is members of their own party—not the opposition—who can cause them the most difficulty in moving their agendas forward. At least the political opposition usually is readily identifiable for what it is.
--Any House Democrat or Republican considering a switch of political parties—no matter their reason—to alter the control of the House would be well-advised to study Pennsylvania political history. The landscape is littered with the political careers of those who did in the last half-century. Democratic state Senator John Carl Miller of Beaver County (1953-54); Democratic Senator Milton Street of Philadelphia (1981-84); Democratic Congressman Gene Atkinson of Beaver County (in the Reagan era); Republican Senator Frank Pecora of Allegheny County (1979-94) and Democratic Representative Thomas Stish of Luzerne County (1989-96) come immediately to mind.
--The political hangover from the infamous pay raise episode of 2005 continued to take its toll on legislative incumbents. At least four more pay raise votes—House Minority Leader Mike Veon of Beaver County (the only member of the chamber to vote for the pay raise and against its subsequent appeal), and Republicans Tom Gannon of Delaware County and Matt Wright and Gene McGill of Bucks County—were defeated in the November 7 balloting. Additionally, three candidates who defeated pay-raise Republicans in the Spring primary lost to their Democratic opponents in November. The pay raise toll—either by defeat at the ballot box or retirements—crossed the 50-member threshold this year—20 percent of the Legislative complement.
--In many ways, this national election was a contest between talk radio which generally favored the Republicans and the television networks—Fox TV prominently excluded—which generally favored the Democrats. The networks won this time around, making the score 1-3 (2000, 2002, 2004 going the other way.)
--The liberal bent of the national mainstream media—particularly the three national networks-- was never more on display than in this just completed campaign cycle. The non-partisan Center for Media and Public Affairs, in a report of election coverage in the seven weeks after the traditional Labor Day campaign kick-off, concluded 77 percent of the networks’ on-air reports of Democratic candidates and Congressional incumbents was decidedly positive, while 88 percent of the references to Republicans were decidedly negative. Additionally, the ombudsman of the Washington Post took the newspaper to task the week before the election for its distinctly biased coverage in support of Democrat James Webb and in opposition to Republican incumbent George Allen in the Virginia race for the United States Senate. (Webb had a 7,800-vote lead in the unofficial results reported the day after the election.)
--Three unsuccessful candidates in high-visibility races bear further watching should they decide to continue on a political career path. Republican Michael Steele, defeated in the Maryland U.S. Senate race, and Democratic Congressman Harold Ford, a loser in the Tennessee race for the U.S. Senate, both displayed a poise, personality and grasp of national issue that should enhance their political reputations and futures should they decide to pursue it. On the home front, Montgomery County Commissioner Jim Matthews, Swann’s running mate for lieutenant governor, made an impressive debut on the Pennsylvania political scene with his engaging though self-deprecating personality and his articulation of how government can or should work.
--Finally, President Bush. The man reminds me more and more of Harry Truman every day. With the possible exception of Lyndon Johnson, Truman left office in 1952 with the lowest public approval ratings of any modern day president because of the country’s involvement in the Korean War. President Bush is suffering the same fate with Iraq. Yet both men, who’s foes often denigrate their inherent intelligence, knew what they believed, were strong enough never to waver in their core convictions and were prepared to suffer the political consequences of their decisions. History ultimately vindicated Truman’s stewardship. President Bush may well have the same fate awaiting him once history, distanced from the emotion of the moment, has the necessary time and insight to reflect on the events of the Middle East as they play out in the years ahead.
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Copyright (c) 2008 VPC, L.L.C.